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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 56

Indianapolis Colts 27 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(5:12) 8-R.Sanchez punts 41 yards to CAR 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-I.Smith-Marsette to CAR 39 for 24 yards (35-C.Lammons, 50-S.Olubi). CAR-57-C.Wooten was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.63 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model