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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 18 at the 83

Carolina Panthers 13 – Indianapolis Colts 27

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young scrambles up the middle to CAR 29 for 12 yards (94-Ty.Lewis).

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.75 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 83, worth -2.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 41, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.52 EP