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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 89

Carolina Panthers 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(8:14) 10-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to CAR 48, Center-44-J.Jansen. 6-I.McKenzie MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CAR-57-C.Wooten at CAR 48.

The Three Options

GO -2.71 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.02 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 89, worth -4.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 46, worth -2.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model