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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 20 at the 51

Carolina Panthers 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(6:21) 10-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to IND 8, Center-44-J.Jansen. 6-I.McKenzie pushed ob at IND 18 for 10 yards (84-S.Sullivan).

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.07 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 51, worth -2.44 EP
KICK -0.89 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model