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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 77

New York Jets 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(:46) 5-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to LAC 24, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model