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LAC Away

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Brandon Staley
@
NYJ Home

New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
Monday 2023-11-06 · 20:15 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

LAC
62.4%
NYJ
37.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.201 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to LAC: Zach Wilson (NYJ) -0.222 vs Justin Herbert (LAC) +0.147 EPA/dropback
  • LAC offense: +0.068 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • NYJ defense: -0.069 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • LAC defense: +0.062 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LAC 23
–
NYJ 19
Projected margin: LAC by 4 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

LAC

Josh Palmer WR Out Knee
Sebastian Joseph DT Questionable Illness
Morgan Fox DT Questionable Oblique
Jalen Guyton WR Questionable Knee
Eric Kendricks LB Questionable Ribs
Otito Ogbonnia DT Questionable Knee
Kenneth Murray LB Questionable Shoulder

NYJ

Chazz Surratt LB Out Ankle
Duane Brown T Out Hip
Adrian Amos S Questionable Ankle
Allen Lazard WR Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 27
–
NYJ 6

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:35 TD LAC (13:35) 5-T.Morstead punts 59 yards to LAC 13, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 12-D.Davis for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – NYJ 0
  • Q1 02:49 TD LAC (2:49) 30-A.Ekeler right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 13 – NYJ 0
  • Q2 06:01 FG NYJ (6:01) 9-G.Zuerlein 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead. LAC 14 – NYJ 3
  • Q2 00:02 FG LAC (:02) 11-C.Dicker 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 17 – NYJ 3
  • Q3 09:56 FG NYJ (9:56) 9-G.Zuerlein 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead. LAC 17 – NYJ 6
  • Q4 09:22 FG LAC (9:22) 11-C.Dicker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 20 – NYJ 6
  • Q4 03:28 TD LAC (3:28) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 26 – NYJ 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (14:16) 16-J.Scott punts 49 yards to NYJ 24, Center-47-J.Harris. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 24 for no gain (33-D.Leonard; 36-J.Taylor).

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (13:35) 5-T.Morstead punts 59 yards to LAC 13, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 12-D.Davis for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 3 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (9:25) 16-J.Scott punts 36 yards to NYJ 28, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (:46) 5-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to LAC 24, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 15 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 28%

    (13:01) 16-J.Scott punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (10:41) 5-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to LAC 25, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (9:33) 16-J.Scott punts 48 yards to NYJ 37, Center-47-J.Harris. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 45 for 8 yards (57-A.Ogbongbemiga).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 81%

    (6:01) 9-G.Zuerlein 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 12 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (4:42) 16-J.Scott punts 49 yards to NYJ 23, Center-47-J.Harris. 82-X.Gipson ran ob at NYJ 23 for no gain (33-D.Leonard).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 19 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (2:00) 5-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to LAC 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 10 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:00) 16-J.Scott punts 54 yards to NYJ 19, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-57-A.Ogbongbemiga.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (:28) 5-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to LAC 25, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 12-D.Davis pushed ob at LAC 42 for 17 yards (44-J.Sherwood).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (8:31) 16-J.Scott punts 37 yards to NYJ 31, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 55%

    (5:51) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 20-Bre.Hall. 20-Bre.Hall up the middle to LAC 39 for 2 yards (3-D.James, 97-J.Bosa).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 16 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 44%

    (2:42) 5-T.Morstead punts 33 yards to LAC 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 6 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 92%

    (9:22) 11-C.Dicker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 4 at the 68 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (4:43) 16-J.Scott punts 39 yards to NYJ 29, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 68 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (3:05) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 32-Mi.Carter to NYJ 38 for 6 yards (0-D.Henley; 31-N.Niemann).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 42 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 52%

    (1:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep right to 83-T.Conklin to LAC 9 for 33 yards (20-D.Marlowe).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 6 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%

    (:34) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short middle to 83-T.Conklin to LAC 2 for 4 yards (31-N.Niemann; 20-D.Marlowe).