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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 20 at the 85

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(9:33) 16-J.Scott punts 48 yards to NYJ 37, Center-47-J.Harris. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 45 for 8 yards (57-A.Ogbongbemiga).

The Three Options

GO -3.25 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.56 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 85, worth -5.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 43, worth -2.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model