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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 12 at the 72

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(4:42) 16-J.Scott punts 49 yards to NYJ 23, Center-47-J.Harris. 82-X.Gipson ran ob at NYJ 23 for no gain (33-D.Leonard).

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.89 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 72, worth -4.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 30, worth -1.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model