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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 72

New York Jets 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 5-T.Morstead punts 59 yards to LAC 13, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 12-D.Davis for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +2.26 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model