Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 73

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – New York Jets 3

(1:00) 16-J.Scott punts 54 yards to NYJ 19, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-57-A.Ogbongbemiga.

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.38 EP
64% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 73, worth -4.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model