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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 68

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(8:31) 16-J.Scott punts 37 yards to NYJ 31, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 68, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 26, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model