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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 41

New York Jets 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(5:51) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 20-Bre.Hall. 20-Bre.Hall up the middle to LAC 39 for 2 yards (3-D.James, 97-J.Bosa).

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.21 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.94 EP
KICK -0.05 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model