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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 68

New York Jets 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 27

What Actually Happened

(3:05) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 32-Mi.Carter to NYJ 38 for 6 yards (0-D.Henley; 31-N.Niemann).

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 26, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model