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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 42

New York Jets 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 27

What Actually Happened

(1:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep right to 83-T.Conklin to LAC 9 for 33 yards (20-D.Marlowe).

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +2.59 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.32 EP
KICK +0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model