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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 64

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(9:25) 16-J.Scott punts 36 yards to NYJ 28, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.67 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 64, worth -3.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 22, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP