Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 78

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Miami Dolphins 0

(:06) 5-T.Townsend punts 48 yards to MIA 30, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.93 EP
62% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 78, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model