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MIA Away

Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
@
KC Home

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2023-11-05 · 09:30 Deutsche Bank Park, Frankfurt DE 🌧 Rain Spread 1.0 O/U 51.0

Win Probability

MIA
56.5%
KC
43.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: +0.171 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • KC defense: -0.109 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • KC offense: +0.064 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • MIA crossing 6 time zone(s)
  • QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.196 vs Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) +0.153 EPA/dropback
  • Wind 17 mph

Predicted Final Score

MIA 24
–
KC 23
Projected margin: MIA by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

MIA

Robert Hunt G Out Hamstring
Brandon Jones S Out Concussion
Terron Armstead T Questionable Knee
Braxton Berrios WR Questionable Hamstring
Justin Bethel CB Questionable Foot
River Cracraft WR Questionable Shoulder
Xavien Howard CB Questionable Groin
Nik Needham CB Questionable Achilles
Durham Smythe TE Questionable Ankle
Connor Williams C Questionable Groin

KC

Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB Out Illness
Richie James WR Questionable Knee
Willie Gay LB Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 14
–
KC 21

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:08 TD KC (12:08) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 4-R.Rice for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – KC 6
  • Q2 02:37 TD KC (2:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 1-J.McKinnon for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-5-J.Ramsey, Defensive Holding, declined. MIA 0 – KC 13
  • Q2 00:47 TD KC (:47) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 10-T.Hill to KC 38 for -8 yards (22-T.McDuffie). FUMBLES (22-T.McDuffie), RECOVERED by KC-21-M.Edwards at KC 37. 21-M.Edwards to KC 41 for 4 yards. Lateral to 6-B.Cook for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – KC 20
  • Q3 04:52 TD MIA (4:52) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 11-C.Wilson for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – KC 21
  • Q3 00:27 TD MIA (:27) 31-R.Mostert left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 13 – KC 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 17 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (9:24) 16-J.Bailey punts 40 yards to KC 27, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 12-M.Hardman to KC 24 for -3 yards (22-E.Campbell).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 7 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (6:44) 5-T.Townsend punts 38 yards to MIA 18, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 12 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 35%

    (2:10) 16-J.Bailey punts 35 yards to KC 9, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 12-M.Hardman.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 10 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (:06) 5-T.Townsend punts 48 yards to MIA 30, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 9 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:31) 16-J.Bailey punts 42 yards to KC 17, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 12-M.Hardman.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 12 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:01) 5-T.Townsend punts 48 yards to MIA 37, Center-41-J.Winchester. 0-B.Berrios to MIA 44 for 7 yards (54-L.Chenal, 44-Ca.Jones).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 10 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (11:04) 16-J.Bailey punts 47 yards to KC 9, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 12-M.Hardman. PENALTY on KC-6-B.Cook, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at KC 9.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (:18) 16-J.Bailey punts 48 yards to KC 22, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 12-M.Hardman to KC 32 for 10 yards (45-D.Riley).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:24) 16-J.Bailey punts 52 yards to KC 23, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-20-J.Bethel. PENALTY on KC-43-J.Cochrane, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 23. Penalty on KC-2-J.Williams, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 2 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (10:06) 5-T.Townsend punts 68 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 9 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:14) 5-T.Townsend punts 44 yards to MIA 11, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 1 at the 81 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (2:36) 5-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to MIA 25, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 10 at the 31 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.92 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 71%

    (1:03) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa FUMBLES (Aborted) at KC 31, and recovers at KC 44.