Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 59

Miami Dolphins 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

(13:31) 16-J.Bailey punts 42 yards to KC 17, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 12-M.Hardman.

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.33 EP
62% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 59, worth -3.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model