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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 68

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(10:06) 5-T.Townsend punts 68 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.73 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 68, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 26, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP