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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 31

Miami Dolphins 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

What Actually Happened

(1:03) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa FUMBLES (Aborted) at KC 31, and recovers at KC 44.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +3.20 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 31, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.56 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 41, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.90 EP