Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 17 at the 67

Miami Dolphins 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

(9:24) 16-J.Bailey punts 40 yards to KC 27, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 12-M.Hardman to KC 24 for -3 yards (22-E.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.19 EP
71% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 67, worth -4.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model