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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 5

Atlanta Falcons 8 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(5:35) 6-Y.Koo 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.02 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 5, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model