MIN @ ATL — 4th & Data

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HC Kevin O'Connell

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Atlanta Falcons

HC Arthur Smith

Sunday 2023-11-05 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 38.5

Win Probability

MIN

24.3%

ATL

75.7%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

QB edge to ATL: Taylor Heinicke (ATL) -0.054 vs Jaren Hall (MIN) -1.153 EPA/dropback (ATL starting Taylor Heinicke in place of Desmond Ridder; MIN starting Jaren Hall in place of Kirk Cousins)
ATL offense: -0.090 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
MIN offense: +0.017 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
ATL defense: -0.041 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIN 18

–

ATL 23

Projected margin: ATL by 5 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

MIN

Dean Lowry DE Out Groin

Christian Darrisaw T Questionable Groin

Jalen Nailor WR Questionable Hamstring

Chris Reed G Questionable Foot

Brian Asamoah LB Questionable Ankle

ATL

DeMarcco Hellams S Out Hamstring

Drake London WR Out Groin

Keith Smith FB Out Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 31

–

ATL 28

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 07:11 FG ATL (7:11) 6-Y.Koo 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. MIN 0 – ATL 3
Q1 02:23 FG MIN (2:23) 1-G.Joseph 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. MIN 3 – ATL 3
Q2 14:12 SAF ATL (14:12) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs sacked in End Zone for -5 yards, SAFETY (93-C.Campbell). MIN 3 – ATL 5
Q2 09:02 FG ATL (9:02) 6-Y.Koo 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. MIN 3 – ATL 8
Q2 05:35 FG ATL (5:35) 6-Y.Koo 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. MIN 3 – ATL 11
Q2 01:00 TD MIN (1:00) 15-J.Dobbs pass short right to 2-A.Mattison for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 9 – ATL 11
Q3 12:20 FG ATL (12:20) 6-Y.Koo 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. Penalty on MIN-20-J.Ward, Running Into the Kicker, declined. MIN 10 – ATL 14
Q3 08:16 FG MIN (8:16) 1-G.Joseph 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. MIN 13 – ATL 14
Q3 07:04 TD ATL (7:04) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 81-J.Smith for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 13 – ATL 20
Q3 02:29 TD MIN (2:29) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs scrambles right end for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 19 – ATL 21
Q4 14:22 FG MIN (14:22) 1-G.Joseph 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. MIN 24 – ATL 21
Q4 02:13 TD ATL (2:13) 25-T.Allgeier left tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on ATL-15-V.Jefferson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. MIN 24 – ATL 27
Q4 00:27 TD MIN (:27) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs pass short left to 4-B.Powell for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 30 – ATL 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 ATL 4th & 15 at the 53

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26% p(FG) 27%

(11:15) 13-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to MIN 8, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.
Q1 MIN 4th & 2 at the 84

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP

p(convert) 64%

(9:06) 14-R.Wright punts 52 yards to ATL 32, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 20-D.Alford.
Q1 ATL 4th & 7 at the 34

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 73%

(7:11) 6-Y.Koo 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Q1 MIN 4th & 1 at the 1

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.04 EP

p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

(2:23) 1-G.Joseph 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Q2 ATL 4th & 14 at the 46

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26% p(FG) 43%

(15:00) 13-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to MIN 7, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.
Q2 ATL 4th & 8 at the 24

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32% p(FG) 88%

(9:02) 6-Y.Koo 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Q2 ATL 4th & 5 at the 5

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

(5:35) 6-Y.Koo 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Q2 ATL 4th & 10 at the 62

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33%

(:21) 13-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to MIN 16, Center-49-L.McCullough. 4-B.Powell pushed ob at MIN 40 for 24 yards (51-D.Malone).
Q3 ATL 4th & 16 at the 36

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 24% p(FG) 68%

(12:20) 6-Y.Koo 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. Penalty on MIN-20-J.Ward, Running Into the Kicker, declined.
Q3 MIN 4th & 9 at the 14

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

(8:16) 1-G.Joseph 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Q3 MIN 4th & 5 at the 70

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 47%

(5:21) 14-R.Wright punts 52 yards to ATL 18, Center-42-A.DePaola. 20-D.Alford to ATL 18 for no gain (20-J.Ward; 11-N.Thompson).
Q4 MIN 4th & 10 at the 13

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 96%

(14:22) 1-G.Joseph 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Q4 ATL 4th & 8 at the 45

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 46%

(12:42) 13-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-49-L.McCullough, Touchback.
Q4 MIN 4th & 5 at the 50

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44% p(FG) 34%

(9:13) 14-R.Wright punts 29 yards to ATL 21, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.
Q4 MIN 4th & 7 at the 34 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.97 EP

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 73%

(:52) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs scrambles right end pushed ob at ATL 12 for 22 yards (27-R.Grant).