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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 15 at the 53

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(11:15) 13-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to MIN 8, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.71 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 53, worth -2.73 EP
KICK -1.42 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 15, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model