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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 84

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(9:06) 14-R.Wright punts 52 yards to ATL 32, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 20-D.Alford.

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.30 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 84, worth -5.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.54 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 42, worth -2.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP