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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 45

Atlanta Falcons 21 – Minnesota Vikings 24

What Actually Happened

(12:42) 13-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-49-L.McCullough, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.41 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 45, worth -2.28 EP
KICK -0.84 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model