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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 34

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(7:11) 6-Y.Koo 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.46 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 34, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 44, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT +0.37 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model