4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 34

Minnesota Vikings 24 – Atlanta Falcons 28

What Actually Happened

(:52) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs scrambles right end pushed ob at ATL 12 for 22 yards (27-R.Grant).

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +2.71 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 34, worth -0.72 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 44, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.84 EP