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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 14 at the 46

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 13-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to MIN 7, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.98 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 46, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -0.71 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 13, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model