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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 62

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(8:39) 4-M.Dickson punts 49 yards to BAL 13, Center-41-C.Stoll. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 16 for 3 yards (44-N.Bellore).

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.46 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 62, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 21, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model