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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2023-11-05 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US 🌧 Rain Spread 6.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

SEA
31.2%
BAL
68.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL defense: -0.162 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • BAL offense: +0.055 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Geno Smith (SEA): -0.047 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SEA offense: +0.021 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 21
–
BAL 27
Projected margin: BAL by 6 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

SEA

Austin Faoliu DT Questionable Knee
Phil Haynes G Questionable Calf
Kenny McIntosh RB Questionable Knee
Anthony Bradford G Questionable Ankle

BAL

Morgan Moses T Doubtful Shoulder
Daryl Worley S Questionable Shoulder
Rock Ya-Sin CB Questionable Illness
Marcus Williams S Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 3
–
BAL 37

Prediction missed by 28 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 13:09 TD BAL (13:09) 35-G.Edwards up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 0 – BAL 6
  • Q2 02:44 TD BAL (2:44) 35-G.Edwards right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 0 – BAL 13
  • Q2 01:02 FG SEA (1:02) 5-J.Myers 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 3 – BAL 14
  • Q2 00:08 FG BAL (:08) 9-J.Tucker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout. SEA 3 – BAL 17
  • Q3 12:49 FG BAL (12:49) 9-J.Tucker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout. SEA 3 – BAL 20
  • Q3 03:31 FG BAL (3:31) 9-J.Tucker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout. SEA 3 – BAL 23
  • Q3 00:36 TD BAL (:36) (Shotgun) 34-K.Mitchell left guard for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 3 – BAL 29
  • Q4 08:19 TD BAL (8:19) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short left to 3-O.Beckham for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 3 – BAL 36

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (13:34) 4-M.Dickson punts 49 yards to BAL 20, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 13 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (11:38) 11-J.Stout punts 47 yards to SEA 23, Center-69-T.Ott. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 31 for 8 yards (30-T.Simpson).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 4 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 48%

    (8:54) 4-M.Dickson punts 39 yards to BAL 4, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-44-N.Bellore.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 3 at the 89
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (6:42) 11-J.Stout punts 66 yards to SEA 23, Center-69-T.Ott. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 33 for 10 yards (16-T.Wallace).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 18 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (3:48) 4-M.Dickson punts 42 yards to BAL 19, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 9 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (8:39) 4-M.Dickson punts 49 yards to BAL 13, Center-41-C.Stoll. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 16 for 3 yards (44-N.Bellore).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 11 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 95%

    (1:02) 5-J.Myers 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 3 at the 26
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 85%

    (12:49) 9-J.Tucker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (11:31) 4-M.Dickson punts 60 yards to BAL 15, Center-41-C.Stoll. 13-D.Duvernay ran ob at BAL 39 for 24 yards (44-N.Bellore). SEA-31-D.Dallas was injured during the play.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 2 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 61%

    (7:25) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right tackle to SEA 35 for 3 yards (54-B.Wagner).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 6 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 96%

    (3:31) 9-J.Tucker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:59) 4-M.Dickson punts 41 yards to BAL 40, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 7 at the 21
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 91%

    (12:17) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep middle to 14-D.Metcalf (26-G.Stone).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 5 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (7:27) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to BAL 46, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-42-D.Thomas.