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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 26

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(12:49) 9-J.Tucker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.52 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened
  • 85% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 36, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP