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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 13 at the 70

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(11:38) 11-J.Stout punts 47 yards to SEA 23, Center-69-T.Ott. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 31 for 8 yards (30-T.Simpson).

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.67 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 70, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 28, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model