Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 16 at the 81

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Baltimore Ravens 23

(1:59) 4-M.Dickson punts 41 yards to BAL 40, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -3.02 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.51 EP
72% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 81, worth -4.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model