Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 86

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Baltimore Ravens 37

(7:27) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to BAL 46, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-42-D.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +1.04 EP
53% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 86, worth -4.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model