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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 43

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(8:54) 4-M.Dickson punts 39 yards to BAL 4, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-44-N.Bellore.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.19 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 43, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -0.83 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP