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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 32

Houston Texans 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(5:22) 15-K.Fairbairn 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.46 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model