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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
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Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
Sunday 2023-11-05 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.5 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

TB
39.6%
HOU
60.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB offense: -0.058 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • TB on 3 more days rest than HOU
  • C.J. Stroud (HOU): +0.099 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

TB 20
–
HOU 23
Projected margin: HOU by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

TB

Matt Feiler G Out Knee
Logan Hall DE Out Groin
Mike Greene DT Questionable Illness
Christian Izien S Questionable Illness
Kaevon Merriweather S Questionable Ankle
Vita Vea DT Questionable Groin

HOU

Brevin Jordan TE Out Knee
Dameon Pierce RB Out Ankle
Robert Woods WR Out Foot
Sheldon Rankins DT Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 37
–
HOU 39

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 33 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:59 FG TB (12:59) 4-C.McLaughlin 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 3 – HOU 0
  • Q1 09:14 TD HOU (9:14) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 12-N.Collins for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB-35-J.Dean was injured during the play. He is Out. TB 3 – HOU 6
  • Q1 02:19 TD TB (2:19) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 88-C.Otton for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-J.Greenard]. TB 9 – HOU 7
  • Q2 09:07 TD TB (9:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-R.White left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 16 – HOU 7
  • Q2 05:22 FG HOU (5:22) 15-K.Fairbairn 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. TB 17 – HOU 10
  • Q3 12:42 FG TB (12:42) 4-C.McLaughlin 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 20 – HOU 10
  • Q3 12:32 TD HOU (12:32) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep left to 85-N.Brown for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 20 – HOU 16
  • Q3 09:28 FG TB (9:28) 4-C.McLaughlin 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 23 – HOU 16
  • Q3 06:05 TD HOU (6:05) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep right to 3-N.Dell for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 23 – HOU 22
  • Q4 14:15 TD HOU (14:15) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 86-D.Schultz for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 23 – HOU 28
  • Q4 11:46 TD TB (11:46) (Shotgun) 1-R.White left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 29 – HOU 30
  • Q4 08:48 FG HOU (8:48) 33-D.Ogunbowale 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. TB 30 – HOU 33
  • Q4 00:49 TD TB (:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 88-C.Otton for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 36 – HOU 33
  • Q4 00:10 TD HOU (:10) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 3-N.Dell for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on TB-54-L.David, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. TB 37 – HOU 39

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 9 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 94%

    (12:59) 4-C.McLaughlin 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 1 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (3:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-R.White right tackle to HOU 1 for 3 yards (39-H.To'oTo'o; 4-T.Thomas).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 9 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (1:22) 11-C.Johnston punts 58 yards to TB 32, Center-46-J.Weeks. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 36 for 4 yards (29-M.Stewart).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 8 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (14:20) 5-J.Camarda punts 52 yards to HOU 10, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 10 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:15) 11-C.Johnston punts 54 yards to TB 36, Center-46-J.Weeks. 83-D.Thompkins pushed ob at TB 45 for 9 yards (37-D.Ross). PENALTY on HOU-37-D.Ross, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at TB 45.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 9 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 78%

    (5:22) 15-K.Fairbairn 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (3:08) 5-J.Camarda punts 53 yards to HOU 16, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 2 at the 31
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 79%

    (12:42) 4-C.McLaughlin 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 10 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 68%

    (9:28) 4-C.McLaughlin 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 19 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (3:48) 5-J.Camarda punts 49 yards to HOU 41, Center-97-Z.Triner. 3-N.Dell to HOU 48 for 7 yards (97-Z.Triner).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

    (14:15) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 86-D.Schultz for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

    (8:48) 33-D.Ogunbowale 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 7 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:18) 5-J.Camarda punts 48 yards to HOU 22, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 2 at the 41 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 58%

    (1:13) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles left end to HOU 36 for 5 yards (4-T.Thomas, 94-K.Davis).