4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(12:59) 4-C.McLaughlin 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.24 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 17, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 27, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model