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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 11 at the 11

Houston Texans 30 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30

What Actually Happened

(8:48) 33-D.Ogunbowale 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.77 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model