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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 41

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30 – Houston Texans 33

What Actually Happened

(1:13) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles left end to HOU 36 for 5 yards (4-T.Thomas, 94-K.Davis).

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
What Happened
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.12 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 41, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model