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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 90

Houston Texans 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:22) 11-C.Johnston punts 58 yards to TB 32, Center-46-J.Weeks. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 36 for 4 yards (29-M.Stewart).

The Three Options

GO -2.84 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.67 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 90, worth -5.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 47, worth -2.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model