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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 81

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(13:14) 6-P.Harvin punts 62 yards to TEN 19, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 33-E.Garror to TEN 27 for 8 yards (83-Co.Heyward).

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.41 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 81, worth -4.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 38, worth -1.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model