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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
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Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Thursday 2023-11-02 · 20:15 Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 37.0

Win Probability

TEN
47.2%
PIT
52.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PIT offense: -0.120 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • QB edge to TEN: Kenny Pickett (PIT) -0.035 vs Will Levis (TEN) +0.192 EPA/dropback
  • TEN offense: -0.057 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • PIT defense: -0.048 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TEN 21
–
PIT 23
Projected margin: PIT by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

TEN

Christopher Hubbard T Out Concussion
Ryan Tannehill QB Out Ankle
Mike Brown S Out Ankle
Roger McCreary CB Out Hamstring
DeAndre Hopkins WR Questionable Toe

PIT

Minkah Fitzpatrick S Out Hamstring
Levi Wallace CB Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 16
–
PIT 20

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:16 TD PIT (10:16) (Shotgun) 22-N.Harris right tackle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – PIT 6
  • Q1 02:52 FG TEN (2:52) 6-N.Folk 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. TEN 3 – PIT 7
  • Q2 06:40 TD TEN (6:40) 98-J.Simmons reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 9 – PIT 7
  • Q2 01:19 FG PIT (1:19) 9-C.Boswell 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. TEN 10 – PIT 10
  • Q2 00:03 FG TEN (:03) 6-N.Folk 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. TEN 13 – PIT 10
  • Q3 05:44 FG PIT (5:44) 9-C.Boswell 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. TEN 13 – PIT 13
  • Q3 00:24 FG TEN (:24) 6-N.Folk 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. TEN 16 – PIT 13
  • Q4 04:06 TD PIT (4:06) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short right to 18-D.Johnson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 16 – PIT 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 29%

    (7:00) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 22-D.Henry. 22-D.Henry left tackle to PIT 45 for 6 yards (31-K.Neal).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 13 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 93%

    (2:52) 6-N.Folk 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:03) 6-P.Harvin punts 54 yards to TEN 19, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 33-E.Garror to TEN 18 for -1 yards (13-M.Boykin).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 8 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (14:11) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 59 yards to PIT 5, Center-46-M.Cox. 19-C.Austin to PIT 17 for 12 yards (56-M.Rice; 40-A.Kendall).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 8 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:14) 6-P.Harvin punts 62 yards to TEN 19, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 33-E.Garror to TEN 27 for 8 yards (83-Co.Heyward).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 97%

    (1:19) 9-C.Boswell 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 9 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 93%

    (:03) 6-N.Folk 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:11) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 61 yards to PIT 12, Center-46-M.Cox. 19-C.Austin to PIT 13 for 1 yard (39-M.Jackson, 86-K.Rader).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 3 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 96%

    (5:44) 9-C.Boswell 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 15 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 79%

    (:24) 6-N.Folk 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 7 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (12:38) 6-P.Harvin punts 48 yards to TEN 8, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-28-M.Killebrew.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 8 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:21) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 51 yards to PIT 8, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 4 at the 46 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 41%

    (2:13) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass incomplete deep left to 16-T.Burks (29-L.Wallace). TEN-16-T.Burks was injured during the play.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 8 at the 51 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 29%

    (1:50) 6-P.Harvin punts 36 yards to TEN 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 33-E.Garror.