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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 11 at the 11

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(1:19) 9-C.Boswell 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.13 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 22, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model