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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 73

Tennessee Titans 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(14:11) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 61 yards to PIT 12, Center-46-M.Cox. 19-C.Austin to PIT 13 for 1 yard (39-M.Jackson, 86-K.Rader).

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.62 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model