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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 12

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(5:44) 9-C.Boswell 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +2.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.45 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 12, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 22, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP