Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 56

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Tennessee Titans 16

(12:38) 6-P.Harvin punts 48 yards to TEN 8, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-28-M.Killebrew.

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.53 EP
63% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 56, worth -2.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model