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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 51

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 – Tennessee Titans 16

What Actually Happened

(1:50) 6-P.Harvin punts 36 yards to TEN 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 33-E.Garror.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +1.81 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 51, worth -1.83 EP
KICK -0.70 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model