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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 51

Tennessee Titans 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:00) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 22-D.Henry. 22-D.Henry left tackle to PIT 45 for 6 yards (31-K.Neal).

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.45 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 51, worth -3.02 EP
KICK -1.67 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model